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Traders placed approximately $580 million in oil bets on Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contracts between 6:49 a.m. and 6:50 a.m. New York time on Monday, March 24, 2026, about 15 minutes before President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, announcing "productive conversations" with Iran and a pause in planned strikes.
About fifteen minutes prior to President Donald Trump's Truth Social post regarding Iran negotiations, which caused crude prices to plummet, traders on Monday placed wagers totaling roughly $580 million in the oil market.
Between 6:49 and 6:50 a.m., about 6,200 West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures contracts were traded. About fifteen minutes before to Trump's 7:04 a.m. post claiming that "productive conversations" had been held with Tehran to stop the war in Iran, the trades took place.
Following the revelation, the price of oil plummeted, falling 14% in just a few minutes. Traders would have profited if they had placed a wager on the unexpected shift.
According to some market observers, the extraordinary activity raises the idea that the bets were made knowing the outcome beforehand.
The impact of Trump's post was instantaneous. As investors began to think that the violence may lessen, oil prices immediately dropped. Conversely, stock markets responded, with European shares and S&P 500 futures rising as concerns about a protracted conflict subsided.
The market swing, though, was short-lived. The speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, said later in the day that no negotiations had taken place. He referred to the stories as "fake news" in a post on X, claiming they were intended to affect the oil and financial markets and assist the US and Israel in "escaping the quagmire" they find themselves in. Following his remarks, stocks declined, markets changed once again, and oil prices slightly increased.
"Doing what's best for the American people is the only focus of President Trump and Trump administration officials," stated spokesperson Kush Desai.
"The White House does not tolerate any administration official illegally profiting off of insider knowledge, and any implication that officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting," he continued.
The Middle East crisis has rocked the world's financial markets, causing share values to plummet as the prices of gas and oil skyrocketed. However, on multiple occasions, optimism about a possible end to the conflict has caused erratic swings, with stock markets increasing and oil significantly declining.
Global energy markets saw a sell-off in response to Trump's Truth Social post, but European stocks and S&P 500 stock index futures saw increases.
Around 6:00 PM, crude oil WTI futures were trading at roughly $89.50. Monday at New York time, down from over $98 just prior to Trump's post. On Monday, the S&P 500 index increased by 1.05%.
The Speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, refuted any talks between Washington and Tehran in a post on X later on Monday.
Following Zimbabwe's suspension of concentrate exports, lithium prices and shares skyrocketed, raising concerns that the world's supply of the battery material would become more constrained.
